Russian Territorial Gains in Ukraine Drop to Lowest Level Since Mid-May

Russian forces have reduced the pace of territorial gains in Ukraine to the lowest level since mid-May, according to data analyzed by the Agency from the OSINT project DeepState, which is close to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

Over the past incomplete week, Russian troops captured 78 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. The last time Russian forces gained less than 100 square kilometers in a week was in mid-May.

Details of the Offensive

The largest advances this week occurred around Pokrovsk, where Russian troops took control of 28 square kilometers. An additional 20 square kilometers were seized further south, where Russia continues its offensive from the area near Velyka Novosilka.

To the east of Kostiantynivka, 9 square kilometers came under Russian control; in the area of the village of Melove in northern Kharkiv region, 7 square kilometers; in northern Sumy region, 6 square kilometers; and just under 6 square kilometers near Vovchansk.

On Friday, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed the capture of the village of Degtyarne in northern Kharkiv region, which RIA Novosti described as “the opening of a new front.” However, neither DeepState nor the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have confirmed that Degtyarne has come under Russian control.

Declining Rate of Advance

The Russian army’s rate of advance began to slow last week, when Moscow gained control of 158 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory — one and a half times less than the previous week (225 square kilometers).

This week, the pace has halved again. The last time Russian troops captured less than 100 square kilometers in a week was from May 12 to 18, when they took 68 square kilometers. Following that, the Russian advance had returned to the rates seen last autumn.

This week, prominent Russian “Z-channels” began reporting a shift in the situation around Pokrovsk. On Monday, the “Voenny Osvedomitel” channel reported that “the northeast flank of the Ukrainian defense in the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad area has significantly collapsed.”

On Tuesday, Z-blogger Yuriy Podolyaka wrote that redeployment of Ukrainian reserves is not helping to stabilize the situation and spoke of “the start of the assault on Pokrovsk.”

Ukrainian sources later confirmed the critical situation in southern Donetsk region. On Wednesday, the OSINT project Frontelligence Insight reported that “the situation in the Pokrovsk area is currently critical and is likely to deteriorate further in the near future.”

Potential Threats

The situation near the town of Rodynske, northeast of Pokrovsk, has also become threatening, a representative of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) told the Agency.

“If Rodynske is captured, the northern route into Pokrovsk will be physically controlled, not just targeted by strikes. Logistics will become even more difficult, possibly repeating the situation with the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kursk region,” the analyst explained.

However, he noted that there is currently no talk of an assault on Rodynske. Military analyst Yan Matveev agreed that if Rodynske falls, Pokrovsk and all roads to it will come under tight drone surveillance and fire control — just as this previously led to a rapid Ukrainian withdrawal from the Kursk region.

Ruslan Leviev, founder of CIT, stated on Wednesday that the actual encirclement of Pokrovsk, which would require an urgent deployment of Ukrainian reserves, is still far off. “We can return to this issue in October, and even then, it’s not certain that the encirclement will begin,” Leviev said.

Context

Russia is capturing less than 0.1% of Ukrainian territory each month, and at this pace it would take several years for Moscow to occupy all of the regions it claimed to have annexed in 2022 — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, according to The New York Times.

The tempo of Russia’s advance may influence the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. This week, amid Donald Trump’s statements about new arms supplies to Kyiv and his threat to impose additional sanctions on Russia within 50 days if the war continues, the Kremlin repeatedly accused Ukraine of delaying agreement on a third round of negotiations in Istanbul.

On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Kyiv had proposed holding a new round of talks with Moscow next week.