Cracks in the Axis: How China, Russia and Iran “Alliance” Falters

When Russia turned to China, North Korea, and Iran for support in its ongoing war against Ukraine, talk of a new “axis” of authoritarian powers quickly gained traction in Western capitals.

United by resentment toward the United States and their autocratic governance styles, the four countries seemed poised to present a formidable front against the West.

Yet recent conflicts have revealed glaring weaknesses in this supposed alliance. Iran, despite supplying Russia with drones, ballistic missiles, and oil, found itself isolated when it was attacked by Israel and U.S. forces.

China and Russia — arguably the axis’s strongest members—issued routine condemnations of American actions but offered no real help. North Korea and China likewise remained on the sidelines.

“The reality of this conflict turned out to be that Russia and China didn’t run to Iran’s rescue,” observes Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“That just exposes the limitations of the whole ‘axis’ idea. Each of them is pretty selfish and doesn’t want to get embroiled in the wars of others. These are very different wars and conflicts. The countries aren’t bound by shared structures and values like the U.S. and its allies.”

While these nations are united by animosity toward Washington and by their autocratic regimes, their strategic interests diverge. Although they coordinate on sanctions-busting and arms transfers, there is little evidence of meaningful, unified action.

Only Russia and North Korea have cemented a renewed mutual defense pact, with North Korea reportedly sending over 14,000 troops to assist Russia in Ukraine. Their relationship is rooted in Cold War history and a shared anti-American past.

China and Russia, meanwhile, maintain a close but pragmatic partnership, trumpeted as having “no limits” just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Yet even as China has helped sustain Russia’s military industry and remains a top importer of Russian oil, it has refrained from providing significant direct military aid.

Iran, the outlier in this group, has never enjoyed such intimacy with Russia or China. Suspicion runs deep: Iran’s theocratic government makes uneasy partners of the secular, socialist-legacy states.

Russia and China, wary of Islamic fundamentalism, are unwilling to risk regional relationships, including with Israel and key Arab states, for the sake of Tehran.

“There are no shared values beyond vague platitudes about a ‘multipolar world order,’ and there are quite a few contradictions,” says Sergey Radchenko, a Cold War historian at Johns Hopkins University.

“Putin is a cynical manipulator interested only in his strategic interests, and if this means throwing Iran under the bus, then he is prepared to do this. The feeling is fully reciprocated in Tehran.”

Recent events highlight these fault lines. As Iran clashed with Israel and endured U.S. airstrikes, Russia and China limited themselves to diplomatic platitudes.

China, mindful of its growing economic ties with Iran’s regional rivals Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has preferred to act as a broker for stability rather than an agent of conflict.

Beijing’s diplomatic triumph in engineering a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 was a high point, but China has since adopted a cautious, low-profile approach as Middle Eastern power dynamics shift.

While some analysts, such as Yun Sun at the Stimson Center, argue that the axis concept remains relevant—pointing to a shared anti-Western outlook and ongoing cooperation in technology and finance—the limitations are clear.

China’s support for Iran is cautious and laced with mistrust, and there is no binding mutual defense commitment linking all four states.

As Iran’s defense minister made his first post-war foreign visit to China in late June, the world watched for signs of deeper alignment.

For now, however, the “axis” remains less a unified bloc than a loose alignment of convenience—one that is quick to unravel under pressure.