The first elections since Donald Trump’s landslide 2024 comeback have delivered sobering results for Republicans. Democrats scored decisive victories in Virginia and New Jersey’s governor races, retained three liberal judgeships in Pennsylvania, passed a redistricting measure in California, and captured two Public Service Commission seats in Georgia. In New York, a Democratic Socialist was elected mayor — in Trump’s own hometown.

These contests offered the first real referendum on the new administration.

Turnout data show a sharp drop among Republican voters once Trump’s name disappeared from ballots. In Virginia, GOP turnout fell by about 45 percent compared with the presidential race, while Democrats dropped only 22 percent.

A similar pattern emerged in New Jersey.

Democrats argue the results confirm what they long suspected: the MAGA coalition is bound not by ideology but by Trump’s personal appeal. It joins tech executives seeking deregulation with Midwestern populists calling for wage hikes and immigration limits — factions difficult to unite without him.

Republicans counter that the president’s long-term agenda is still taking effect. “President Trump is restoring freedom and prosperity for every American,” RNC press secretary Kiersten Pels told Newsweek.

“Keeping a Republican Congress in 2026 will give him the full four years needed to finish the job.”

Trump’s team highlights achievements from his first year back in office: mediating peace in eight global conflicts, cutting illegal border crossings to record lows, and negotiating new trade deals through tariffs.

Yet voters remain focused on everyday costs and inflation.

Vice President J.D. Vance acknowledged the turnout gap, noting that “our coalition is lower-propensity — we have to do better at mobilizing voters.”

Looking to 2028, Trump has hinted that Vance and Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Marco Rubio are his preferred successors.

Vance, an Appalachian populist with Silicon Valley ties, could bridge MAGA and big tech; Rubio, a veteran of the GOP establishment, may expand Hispanic and centrist support.

Whether either man can replicate Trump’s singular magnetism remains uncertain.

The 2025 results suggest the Republican Party’s biggest challenge isn’t the opposition — it’s finding a way to win when Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot.